Election 2026: What happens now?

Brian Bethune
Economics

The inflation rate will descend by about a percentage point from an October 2026 peak of near 3.5 percent to near 2.5 percent by October 2027. The key drivers are expected to be: a decline in crude oil and diesel prices as the Middle East war recedes from the radar screen, a reduction in tariff rates, and a trade deal with Canada which would include both lower tariffs and higher imports of energy products.

Diana Bowser
Connell School of Nursing

The most likely post-midterm election health care topic that will immediately take center stage is the issue of increasing health care costs and the ongoing debate over extending health insurance subsidies. The Health Insurance Marketplace gives Americans without employer-based coverage, Medicaid, or Medicare a way to shop and purchase health insurance that best fits their needs and budget. Most enrollees are everyday Americans who may not have access to employer-sponsored insurance, and many rely on federal subsidies to help afford the monthly health insurance premiums. In 2021, Congress expanded the subsidies, helping individuals and families over 400 percent of the poverty line to purchase insurance through the Marketplace, called the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits. However, the enhanced subsidies ended in December 2025, and the sudden loss of financial support directly jeopardizes coverage for a large percent of the 24.2 million people insured through the Marketplace. Given the increasing cost of health care nationally, and particularly in key swing states, where research shows that premiums will increase by over 400 percent without a subsidy, health care affordability and Marketplace coverage will need to be addressed and will be an important post-midterm topic.

David Buckley
Political Science
Director, Boisi Center for Religion and American Public Life

Several of the most prominent and successful 2026 Democratic Senate campaigns leaned into religious messaging, advertising, and outreach. This was the case both for both centrists like Adam Hamilton and candidates on the party’s left like Abdul El-Sayed. When consistent with a candidate’s biography, as is the case for Presbyterian seminarian James Talarico, this sort of framing may help to establish moral bona fides, a useful trait when surveys show rising American anger with political corruption. Any successful strategy will have to manage a very diverse Democratic religious coalition, which also includes millions of Americans who have no particular religion. A soul-searching pattern is likely to develop in GOP circles. Low conservative turnout seems part of the 2026 results, and that extends to religious portions of the GOP coalition. Exit polls indicate that 82 percent of white evangelicals still supported Republicans, but, as a share of the overall electorate, evangelicals declined from 24 percent in the 2022 exit polls to 17 in 2026. The 2028 GOP presidential hopefuls must be thinking about how to respond to this enthusiasm drop among white evangelicals, and how that response relates to the future of the MAGA movement.

Thomas Byrne
BC School of Social Work

On the social policy front, we will see a permanent expansion of the child tax credit.  A temporary expansion of the child tax credit during the pandemic increased its value and made it fully refundable.  This provided a big boost to low- and middle-income families and resulted in a huge but short-lived drop in child poverty. There have since been proposals from both sides of the aisle to permanently expand the child tax credit in some form. The new Democratic Congress will want to roll back the big cuts to safety net programs enacted by the previous Congress as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act but will face challenges in doing so. They stand a much better chance of marshaling enough bipartisan support to enact a permanent expansion of the child tax credit, and doing so would be a slam-dunk way to notch a win in addressing the affordability challenges that they campaigned on.

Rocío Calvo
BC School of Social Work

One prediction is that the new Congress will support the Protect American Values Act. The bill seeks to block federal funding for implementing the new Public Charge regulations, which give immigration officials broad discretion to deny green cards to immigrants who use essential services such as food stamps, housing assistance, or health care. These regulations are bound to create a chilling effect that will drive millions of eligible mixed-status families away from programs that have proven very effective in preventing poverty and adverse health outcomes and in promoting the well-being of all Americans. In a letter announcing his candidacy for Speaker of the House, Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries urged fellow members of Congress to repair the damage caused by the current administration’s cuts to health care and food assistance and to restore our American values of justice for all and our immigrant heritage. I think Congress will back the Protect American Values Act because it aligns very well with Democrats’ agenda of keeping families from falling further into poverty and restoring American principles.

Michael Hartney
Political Science

Starting in 2027, the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit (FSTC), a new federal school choice program enacted as part of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, takes effect. The program offers taxpayers a $1,700 credit for donations to Scholarship Granting Organizations (SGOs), which fund scholarships for private K–12 schooling. Importantly, governors must agree to participate and allow SGOs to be set up in their state. So far, most Republican governors have signed on, but only a handful of Democratic governors have. I predict more Democrats will sign on because of the economic incentives. Taxpayers can donate to SGOs outside their home states, meaning federal dollars could flow to support students elsewhere while students in a governor’s own state receive nothing. Still, there will be plenty of political maneuvering. Democratic governors eyeing presidential runs in 2028 may be especially reluctant to cross teachers unions, which have signaled they will make this a litmus test.

Daniel Kanstroom
BC Law School

I predict substantial congressional oversight of interior immigration enforcement.  The main reason for this is that—according to voter polls—immigration was a major issue for voters, behind the economy and democracy, but ahead of health care, foreign policy, and crime.  Among the main concerns were the cruelty, capriciousness, and chaos of CBP and ICE actions. Many voters, especially Latino voters, supported candidate Trump’s promises of greater border control and targeted deportations of “the worst of the worst.” They have been deeply troubled by violent, poorly supervised actions by masked agents, such as the tragic killing of American citizens. Polls have also consistently shown revulsion over racially discriminatory, violent arrests of workers and long-term residents, separation of children from parents, and deportations to countries in which people have no connections and where they face imprisonment, corruption, and torture. Although enforcement budgets are largely set for the time being, there will undoubtedly be robust Senate and House investigations into allegations of agency abuses of power, detention conditions, enforcement practices, and corruption. There will also be legislative actions to compel greater oversight of ICE and CBP and to limit enforcement tactics, although such legislation will likely face threats of presidential veto.

Raquel Muñiz
Lynch School of Education and Human Development

If politics has taught us anything this past decade, it’s that things can quickly take an unexpected turn and shatter predictions. So, I make my claims cautiously. In the next 12 months, I expect to see tension between holding political and policy actors accountable for corruption or mismanagement, and a push for policy initiatives that are responsive to people’s economic and cost-of-living concerns. We will also see lots of interest groups trying to advocate for particular policy changes, e.g., in education, groups seeking to restore federal funding research dollars or immigrants’ rights groups seeking immigration reform. All to say, lots of debate, changes, and engagement, and this is what democracy is all about. A new era is dawning in American democracy, and we each get to shape its direction through our respective work and civic engagement.

Robert Murphy
Economics

After pausing before the election, the Federal Reserve will again raise interest rates, one to two times during the next year, tightening monetary policy with the goal of pushing price inflation lower.  The election results arguably have increased the probability of a diplomatic settlement to the Iran conflict. If this leads to a normalization of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the pull-back in energy prices will support lower inflation. To the extent this does not occur and the conflict continues or worsens, I would expect the Federal Reserve to tighten policy even more during 2027. Much also depends on the pace of job growth, which has slowed recently but remains consistent with a steady pace of economic growth. Should the labor market falter and unemployment rise significantly, this may force the Fed to slow its pace of tightening. The Fed clearly is concerned about the persistence of inflation and wants to see it lowered, but economic and geopolitical developments will influence the pace at which it proceeds.

Elizabeth Prodromou
International Studies

The results of this election will make for some hard work and, hopefully, renewed unity in the country over the next two years. Voters across partisan lines are greatly concerned about affordability and the high cost of living, from food prices to gas prices to housing to health care, as well as America’s latest “forever war.” But beyond these shared concerns, priorities like the climate crisis, crime, social stability, education, and immigration are points of divergence. Congress is going to have to prove to the American electorate that they can govern. This will mean bipartisan support for ending the war in Iran and its negative cascading effects; action on must-pass bills on affordability issues, government funding packages, and dealing with the colossal national debt; and repairing the reputational and functional damage to America’s role in the world. In short, the coming two years are about the political will to do the hard work of good governance—all while both parties reflect on how to move back to their respective ideological centers. It’s difficult to predict the appetite for good work and good will and for the White House response. What’s certain is that the next two years will signal the longer-term future.