Shaky ground

The link between earthquakes and oil and gas extraction-related activity in the United States has been endorsed by many scientists, notes Professor of History Conevery Bolton Valencius. Now, thanks to a recent National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH) grant, she and collaborator Anna Kuchment are closer to publishing research on the impact of such human-caused earthquakes—known as induced seismicity—and its long-range environmental implications.

Valencius and Kuchment, a science journalist who is the Boston Globe health and medical editor, received a highly competitive $124,000 NEH Collaborative Research Grant in support of their project, “Shaky Ground: The Untold Story of the Greatest Earthquake Surge to Hit Modern America.” The pair are aiming to write about technical topics for a broad audience.

“America’s production of fossil fuels has consequences below the earth,” Valencius explained. “We have to deal with the problems that result, as much as we would prefer not to. And these problems are complex and immense, so it’s imperative to have conversations at the community level, not just in corporate offices or government buildings.

“That’s why we’re trying to write a book in earth sciences that will have as much relevance in a local grocery store as it does in the oil and gas industry.”

A scholar of the history of science, medicine, and the environment, Valencius began researching the connection between energy production and earthquakes not long after publishing her 2013 book The Lost History of the New Madrid Earthquakes, about a series of forgotten quakes that struck the Mississippi Valley in the 19th century. While working on that book, she had come across speculation that hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, would set off similar seismic activity in some parts of the U.S.

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey implicates not simply fracking, but the disposal of the huge volumes of liquid waste from fracking and similar unconventional oil and gas production, she found. The central and eastern U.S. averaged 21 3.0-magnitude or higher earthquakes from 1973 to 2008; by 2015, the number of quakes was more than 1,000. Concurrently, the number of fracking wells for natural gas in the U.S. had shot up from about 26,000 in 2000 to 300,000 by 2015. Each of these wells generated significant amounts of wastewater, much of which gets re-injected deep underground through a disposal well. In 2021, almost 12 billion barrels of wastewater from oil and gas production were disposed of through injection wells that send this liquid waste to underground rock formations—with potential seismic consequences.

In 2016, the USGS identified induced seismicity as a future earthquake hazard, with the greatest risk in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arkansas.

“What makes this a serious problem is that many such quakes occur in regions that don’t typically experience natural earthquakes, and aren’t built to withstand them,” said Valencius, noting that in 2016, Pawnee, Okla., endured a 5.8 magnitude quake that damaged buildings more than 300 miles away in Kansas City.  

On the other hand, she found, a series of earthquakes in Arkansas had stopped after wastewater injection sites were closed. “It was impossible to ignore the implications of that.”

Valencius began working with Kuchment in 2017 while on a fellowship at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced Study, having connected with her through Radcliffe colleagues; Kuchment, whose experience includes editor/writer at Newsweek, senior editor for Scientific American, and science enterprise reporter for The Dallas Morning News, has covered connections between fracking and earthquakes for years.

“Anna has been a joy to collaborate with,” said Valencius. “We found we have complementary areas of focus, so we could pool resources; she also has a great sense about how to use precise details to tell a story. Working with her really helped to move the project forward.”

Doing the research for the project has involved reading scientific publications as well as tracking social media posts by citizens and other observers concerned about the effects of fracking. It’s also necessitated “buying steel-toed boots,” quipped Valencius: She and Kuchment have hiked out to remote areas to watch geologists install monitoring equipment in areas prone to, or at risk of, quakes.

There have been unforeseen delays in finishing the book, in part because of the pandemic—Valencius, in fact, endured a case of long COVID. The complexity of the material they had to learn has been challenging, said Valencius: Above all, she and Kuchment want to get their facts right—because, they say, that’s what the scientists they study have been trying to do.

“A lot of the story comes from moderately paid, hardworking state geologists and academic researchers, who against strong headwinds have been seeking to find out what’s going on, and to keep people safe,” said Valencius, who last year was named a fellow by the American Association for the Advancement of Science for outstanding contributions to the history of seismology and American health and the environment, and for excellence in communicating the history of science to the public.

“Anna and I have been struck with the power of public science, and the integrity and commitment demonstrated in working for the public good. We want to honor that commitment by making sure we have the precise details.”

Valencius credits her work with the Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society as having contributed to her understanding of seismology-related principles and concepts. She also co-taught a Core Curriculum course with Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences John Ebel, Powering America, on the production, distribution, and use of energy in the U.S., and its technological, economic, and environmental impacts.

 “I’m very grateful for the skills I’ve been able to gain at BC, especially through the interdisciplinary focus of the Schiller Institute. The experience has given me an expanded perspective and a broader language to use.”