Earth and Environmental Sciences Faculty

Carling Hay

Assistant Professor


My research interests span a broad range of topics including severe weather, climate change, global and local sea level change, and sea level projections through the 21st century and beyond.  An underlying theme of my work is to employ statistical techniques to better understand global mean sea level during current and past warm periods, and to develop the tools necessary to extract source information from historical sea-level records. 

Through the application of advanced statistical and geophysical modelling techniques to geological, historic, and space geodetic records of sea level, I seek to better understand the connection between climate, ice sheet stability, and sea level over a broad range of time and spatial scales. I am particularly interested in understanding sea-level changes during periods of relative ice age warmth (e.g., interglacials, meltwater pulses), over the last 200 years of an industrial world, and into the next century and millennium.

My scientific endeavors are driven by a passion to understand how both the Earth and society will evolve and adapt to future climate change. 

  • Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D., Horton, R. M., Hay, C., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., Strauss, B. H. (2017). Implications of ice-shelf hydrofracturing and ice cliff collapse mechanisms for sea-level projections, Earth’s Future, 5, 1217-1233.doi:10.1002/2017EF000663.
  • Hay, C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R. E., and J. X. Mitrovica (2017). On the robustness of Bayesian fingerprinting estimates of global sea-level change, Journal of Climate, 30, 3025-3038.
  • Hay, C., Lau, H., Gomez, N., Austermann, J., Powell, E., Mitrovica, J. X., Latychev, K., and D. Wiens (2017). Sea-level fingerprints in a region of complex Earth structure: The case of WAIS, Journal of Climate, 30, 1881-1892. 
  • Kopp, R. E., Kemp, A. C., Bittermann, K., Horton, B. P., Donnelly, J. P., Gehrels, W. R., Hay, C., Mitrovica, J. X., Morrow, E., and S. Rahmstorf (2016) Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era, PNAS, 113, E1434-E1441.
  • Hay, C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R.E., and J.X. Mitrovica (2015). Probabilistic reanalysis of 20th century sea-level rise. Nature, 517, 481-484.