January 06, 2003
The Largest Intergenerational Wealth Transfer in History is Still Valid
Despite the economic downturn and the fall of the equity markets, the nationally noted projection that a wealth transfer of at least $41 trillion will take place in the United States by the year 2052 remains valid.
Following a thorough review of our 1999 report "Millionaires and the Millennium: New Estimates of the Forthcoming Wealth Transfer and the Prospects for a Golden Age of Philanthropy," we conclude in our new report "Why the $41 Trillion Wealth Transfer Estimate is Still Valid: A Review of Challenges and Questions," that its projections have not been significantly affected by recent and prevailing economic conditions.
The current report reviews the validity of the $41 trillion estimate in light of recent economic conditions, as well as several other critical challenges. While the new commentary does not explicitly deal with the middle- and upper-growth scenarios, the arguments made in support of the $41 trillion estimate often apply to the higher estimates. The principal conclusion is that the $41 trillion estimate remains valid as a 2% growth estimate, even in light of recessionary growth, depressed stock market, and several other criticisms discussed in the new report.
[The complete report "Why the $41 Trillion Wealth Transfer is Still Valid: A Review of Challenges and Questions" was published in The National Committee on Planned Giving's The Journal of Gift Planning. Vol. 7, no. 1, 1st Quarter 2003. pp. 11-15, 47-50.]