New England Earthquake Probabilities
This page was last updated on Monday, May 20th, 2012.
These earthquake probabilities are computed based on an analysis of the earthquake activity in New England from 1975-1999 and are presented here on an experimental basis for informational purposes only. Earthquakes smaller than magnitude 2.7 were not included in the analysis and so do not affect the probability values. Please address any questions or comments to email@example.com.
The last earthquake in the New England region with magnitude 2.7 or greater occurred on October 16th, 2012. The magnitude 4.0 earthquake was located 6.0km NNE of Waterboro, ME. For 7 days after October 16th earthquake, there was a 35 percent chance of another felt earthquake (magnitude 2.7 or greater) centered somewhere in New England. No earthquake happened during this time so the chance of another felt earthquake (magnitude 2.7 or greater) is reduced to 11 percent.
This is a chart of the calculated earthquake probabilities for the last 3 weeks (black line) with the magnitude 2.7 or greater and the earthquake probability for the next 7 days (red line) for New England.
This is a chart of the magnitude 2.7 or greater earthquake probabilities for New England from the last 3 months (black line) and the probability of such an earthquake for the next 7 days (red line).
Note: These probabilities are for felt earthquakes above magnitude 2.7 only. Normally, earthquakes between magnitude 2.0 and 3.0 can be felt near the epicenter but cause no damage. Earthquakes between magnitude 3.0 and 4.0 are more widely felt (between 10 and 100 miles from the epicenter) but almost never cause damage. Earthquakes above magnitude 4.5-5.0 can cause minor damage (cracks in plaster and brick walls) near the epicenter. Earthquakes above magnitude 6.0 or so can cause more severe damage to buildings. The probability of a potentially damaging earthquake (above magnitude 5.0) during the next 7 days centered somewhere in New England is estimated to be 0.064 percent.
Spatial Earthquake Probabilities
This is a map of the New England region showing states, counties, and many cities and towns (red symbols) throughout the region. The green-shaded areas are based on an analysis of the earthquake activity of magnitude 2.7 or greater from 1975 to 1988. According to our analysis of the statistics of earthquakes that occurred between 1989 and 1998, there is a 66 percent chance that the next earthquake of magnitude 2.7 or greater in New England will occur in one of the green areas.