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INTERNATIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION

Demographic Trends and Risks for European Higher Education

Fatma Mizikaci and Bernd Baumgartl
Bernd Baumgartl is executive and principal of Navreme Knowledge Development and guest professor at European Peace University. Address: Margarettenstrasse 99, AT 1050 Vienna, Austria. E-mail: baumgartl@navreme.net. Fatma Mizikaci is program director of Navreme Knowledge Development and guest professor at Near East University, Cyprus. Address: Dede Korkut sok. 7/6, A. Ayrancý Ankara Turkey. E-mail: mizikaci@navreme.net.

Demography plays a big role—with key policies of education determined by the composition of the population. The pace and dynamics of population growth are crucial to education planning. The size of the school-age population and hence the potential demand for education affect educational decisions. Furthermore, regional birthrates, migratory flows, and geographic distribution of population will directly impact the decisions of education cost, school types, school mapping, and academic staff recruitment. The distribution of the working population in terms of economic sector and levels of qualification determines the labor needs, thus designating the goals of higher education.

Population projections in the original 27 EU countries together with recently admitted member countries reveal the demographic impacts: data on birthrates, migration, and mobility will combine and coincide with a shrinking youth population over the next 50 years. In many countries the size of the elderly population is increasing faster than the birthrates. Populations in the EU-27 countries failed to reproduce themselves over a prolonged period with a lower than 1.5 birthrate. European universities, which traditionally educate students aged 18-to-25 years, will obviously be affected from the reduced numbers of their traditional target group in the long term. It is projected that some higher education systems in Europe are under the high risk of closure or setback while others are under medium risk due to the population decline.

Migration as a Counterdevelopment
Only the high immigration rates have thus far maintained the annual population growth in the EU. However, from 2025 on immigration will not be enough to sustain the natural population growth and a decrease will be observed. In some countries projected net migration reinforces population growth and in others, it reverses the trend of population decline (Austria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Countries receiving immigration might thus be able to maintain the higher education population. However, countries that lack natural population growth due to low birthrates and at the same time are major senders of immigrants to other countries face the severe risk of contraction of higher education institutions, stagnation within the education market as well as the labor market and thus a decline in economic growth. Today it looks unlikely that increased immigration can fully compensate the potential loss of enrollments in higher education. Moreover, other concerns spring to mind. Are schools prepared to enroll mostly foreigners? Are university curricula responsive to immigrants' needs? Are universities ready to open their doors to foreign staff?

A typology of projected higher education in 2050 has been developed by Mizikaci (From Here to There: Mileposts in Higher Education, ed. B. Baumgartl and A. Glass. Vienna: Navreme Publications Series, 2007). According to this classification, by 2050 many countries—except for Denmark, Luxemburg, Sweden, and the United Kingdom—will hardly be enrolling only their domestic population in higher education. Due to labor migration, countries such as Germany, Denmark, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, and Ireland will continue to host second generations of migrants enrolled in tertiary education. Countries whose higher education systems are at risk include the former Eastern bloc countries, due to low birthrates and negative migration rates: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Croatia.

Challenges and Prospects
For the current and projected cases in eastern European countries it is remarkable that the majority of countries under risk are also "higher education export" countries, sending students and academic staff abroad rather than "importing" foreign students or staff. Moreover, the number of outgoing students is increasing every year while incoming student numbers have been declining.

In aging European societies, societal and sector needs will create and/or improve the programs and vocational training related to health and elderly issues. The health sector will need more professionals and skilled workers. Programs in fields covering elderly issues, medical care, health vocational training, public services, and lifelong learning will also gain more importance. Finally, students beyond the traditional 18-24-year student age will also be enrolling in higher education institutions.

Demographic changes will seem to have an impact on higher education institutions, which will enroll fewer native and more foreign students and staff in the future. The nonnative population in higher education will come from two sources—migration and mobility programs. This will require changes in the present structures: more flexibility and openness to the world in teaching and learning; broader access for world students and academics; differentiation in quality and excellence; managing communication and diversity; and coordination and organization at the European level. Only the higher education institutions that will provide the successful integration of immigrant and foreign students will be able to cope with the remarkable impacts of demographic changes in Europe.

[Online] Available: http://www.bc.edu/bc_org/avp/soe/cihe/newsletter/Number47/p15_Mizikaci_Baumgartl.htm