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INTERNATIONAL HIGHER EDUCATION

Exam Trends and Global Talent Flow

Johnette Peyton and Veronica A. Garcia
Johnette Peyton is a manager of applied research at the Graduate Management Admission Council®. Address: 1600 Tysons Boulevard, Suite 1400, McLean, VA 22102, USA. E-mail: jpeyton@gmac.com. Veronica A. Garcia is research writer/editor at the Graduate Management Admission Council®. E-mail: vgarcia@gmac.com.

In a recent issue of the Harvard Business Review, Richard Florida identified students as the leading indicator of global talent flow, stating that countries and regions that attract students have an advantage on retaining them and attracting additional pools of talent. If Florida's statement holds true, then new data from the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC) appear to demonstrate evidence of this new competitive landscape.

GMAC, a global not-for-profit education organization of leading graduate business schools and owner of the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT), publishes Geographic Trend Reports identifying migratory trends among GMAT examinees. Findings are based on voluntary responses to the GMAT background information questionnaire along with score report and registration information in a given testing year. The most recent report data include 212,532 examinee records in 2001 and 200,503 in 2005. Approximately two-thirds had US addresses at the time of registration in both years.

Test report submissions are used to gauge interest in studying in a particular region, as GMAT scores often accompany applications to graduate business programs. GMAC findings suggest geographic trends for examinees shifted drastically in some regions from 2001 to 2005. Data from both years identify a strong preference for US programs overall with a slight decline from 2001 to 2005, as well as increasing interest in programs located in England, France, India, and Greece. However, changes in Greece are primarily linked to increased examinees from Greece.

North Americans Stick Close to Home
US citizens sent nearly 99 percent of their score reports to programs in the United States both years. Canadians, though slightly more diverse, sent 95 percent of their score reports to programs in North America (about 62 percent to Canadian programs and 32 percent to US programs).

Among US citizens, schools located in England made the greatest gains, and Spain doubled their percentage. Canadians, though consistent in their preference for North America, did show slightly increased interest in England, France, and Hong Kong from one year to the next.

Major Shifts in Western Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East
Citizens of Western Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East displayed dramatically reduced interest in US programs between 2001 and 2005. (Regional categories by country divide the continent of Asia into two categories: Asia and Central Asia.) Among all citizens of Western Europe, the data show an increasing desire to remain close to home. Programs in Greece experienced the greatest percentage gain among all examinees from Western Europe, moving from sixth to fourth overall.

From citizens of Central Asia, which includes India according to the GMAC regional breakdown of the report, India gained the most market share from the decreased interest in US programs. In addition, citizens of Central Asia displayed increased interest in studying in England, Singapore, and Canada from 2001 to 2005.

The majority of GMAT examinees from the Middle East region, as defined in the report, are from Israel. Perhaps that explains why examinees from the region place programs located in Israel at the top of their list. Citizens of the Middle East region additionally displayed increased interest in programs located in Canada, Lebanon, and England. Also, the United Arab Emirates, which was not ranked in 2001, ranked seventh in 2005 for Middle Eastern examinees.

Minor Shifts in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America
Test takers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America consistently prefer US programs, but slight declines were noted from 2001 to 2005. In Eastern Europe, this decline in US programs was countered by increased interest in programs located in England and France.

Asians, who include Chinese, continue to place Canadian programs as a distant second to programs in the United States. In third place, however, England replaced Hong Kong among Asian citizens between the two years, and Thailand, which was not in the top 10 in 2001, ranked 10th among Asian citizens in 2005. Asian citizens also displayed increasing interest in England, China, France, the Netherlands, and Singapore.

For Africans, England replaced Canada as second behind the United States, and South Africa, Kenya, and Egypt continue to be popular. Declining interest in US programs from citizens of the Mexico/Caribbean/Latin America region was primarily replaced by increasing interest in Canada, England, France, Spain, and the Netherlands. Germany also debuted for the first time among citizens of Mexico/Caribbean/Latin America in 2005.

Oceania Bucks the Trend
Contrary to trends noted for all other world regions, citizens of Australia, New Zealand, and the Pacific Islands (Oceania, collectively), displayed increased interest in US programs over the years reported, but other countries also witnessed increased interest from this region. The percentages of examinees sending scores to England, France, and Ireland all increased while the percentage of score reports sent to schools in Australia, Hong Kong, and Canada decreased. Interest in New Zealand programs also rose for the Oceania group overall.

Discussion
US business programs, which have long been the primary destination of GMAT examinees, are facing increasing competition from England, France, and India. Interest in Canadian programs, though consistently second on the list overall, is fluctuating by region, and programs in the Middle East and Western Europe are experiencing the greatest increases from their own citizens in recent years.

If these trends are indicative of long-term talent flows, as predicted by Florida, then we may in fact be witnessing subtle shifts in market advantage around the world. A comparison of companies listed in the top 100 of the Fortune Global 500 list for 2005 shows US companies generated nearly three times the revenue of their nearest competitors combine?in Germany, followed next by those in France, the United Kingdom (particularly England), and Japan. Given the current separation between revenues, it may be difficult for any one area to overtake the lead position in the near term, but there is certainly evidence of opportunity if talent continues to favor a more diverse distribution. And this opportunity will be particularly evident if the population of students educated abroad grows from 1.7 million in 2001 to more than 8 million by 2025, as estimated by UNESCO.

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