Fight or Flight?: Assessing Your Y2K Travel Risks

1999 B.C. Intell. Prop. & Tech. F. 112801
Fight or Flight?: Assessing Your Y2K Travel Risks

by Tracy Davis, Staff Writer

Last month, the German air carrier, Lufthansa, staged a dramatic test of its Y2K readiness when October 29, 1999, became December 31, 1999. To conduct the test, Lufthansa re-programmed the computers of one of its planes to tick down to the new millennium. The carrier flew 100 journalists above Frankfurt for an hour as the plane's computers changed over to January 1, 2000. After flight attendants popped corks on champagne bottles, the plane safely landed.

While Lufthansa's virtual millennium test may be more dramatic than American carriers, America is staging some theatricals of its own. The FAA has announced that the Administrator of the FAA will be aloft December 31, 1999, in order to demonstrate the FAA's confidence in its regulated carriers and in its own agency's preparedness. On November 2, 1999, the FAA announced that its 565 regulated airports have reported no problems in their ability to meet FAA safety regulations for the turn of the millennium. These regulations require that each airport's computers be compliant for Y2K or that the airport have alternative means to guarantee safety. An example of one of these alternative methods is that doors currently monitored by security locks will also be manned by human guards, in the event that the computers working those locks cannot be fixed in time for the change over to 2000. However, it should be noted that the FAA's web site informing the public of the preparedness of millennium air travel, also includes a disclaimer stating that the FAA does not guarantee the accuracy of the information or its completeness. The FAA's Y2K compliance information is at its web site: www.faay2k.com

For those who will be travelling, a number of resources are available in order to assess personal safety risks or the likelihood of travel inconvenience on December 31, 1999, and immediately after the year 2000 begins. For example, the State Department has been surveying countries around the world. Information on countries' Y2K efforts has been included with the Department's regular consular reports on foreign countries. This is available at travel.state.gov/y2kca.html . For country specific information, go to travel.state.gov/travel_warnings.html . This information is generally supplied by means of surveys conducted in the countries with additional information from US Embassy/Consulate personnel and the Department of Defense. Thus, it may not be completely reliable.

According to the State Department's travel page, Y2K travel readiness varies globally as might be expected. Some countries maintain that their air travel systems' preparations are complete. Among these are Israel, Mexico, Singapore and Canada. A long list of countries including Ireland and Greece are listed as being generally done, with the remainder of their preparations to be complete by the end of December, 1999. Finally, a number of countries, including Italy, are not prepared concerning their airports and infrastructure; for example, power plants supplying power to airports are not expected to be compliant by the end of December.

In addition, the Department of Transportation maintains a web site with information on US airports, carriers and air traffic control centers. This site includes lists of airports and their specific preparedness. For example, for Boston's Logan Airport, DOT reports that there are no Y2K issues effecting Logan's compliance with FAA regulations, and Logan self-reports that its Y2K preparations are complete. The same is listed for John F. Kennedy Airport in New York. That site is www.y2ktransport.dot.gov/fly2k .

The Senate Special Committee on The Year 2000 Technology Problem has released periodical reports on both the Federal Government's and foreign countries' readiness. The Committee's web site is: www.senate.gov/~yd2k or y2k.senate.gov . The Committee released its 100 days report this fall with a summary of preparedness in various sectors, including transportation. The report warns of airport delays because systems such as luggage delivery, food service, and jet fuel services may not be Y2K compliant. Boeing and Airbus, the two major airplane manufacturers worldwide, completed testing before July 1, 1999, and found no safety issues on their planes related to Y2K.

The 100 Days Report also includes information on other transportation industries. Shipping and Ports compliance appeared to be more spotty, with smaller carriers and ports less ready than major carriers and ports. The United States Coast Guard is reported to have contingency plans in place to deal with potential computer failures. The Federal Railroad Administration reported 100% compliance in its internal systems but, unlike the FAA, it does not run safety-critical systems. However, unlike air travel signals, train signals are not dependent on chips that include date information and thus are not considered to be at serious risk.

Public land transportation sectors may experience some disruption, however. In August 1999, only * of the 14 heavy rail systems (subways and elevated trains) in the United States were ready. The other seven reported that they would be ready by October 31. However, 7 of them planned to temporarily stop their systems at midnight of the change over to 2000 to avoid problems. In addition, delays and other problems are expected to be exacerbated by heavier than normal usage, especially in Boston, New York, and the District of Columbia because of millennium celebrations.

In the area of passenger cars and trucks, the major United States auto manufacturers reported to the committee that none expected any Y2K effects on the safety or performance of their vehicles. Trucking companies reported a wider variation of preparedness, with larger and smaller companies farther along in preparations than medium-sized companies. Finally, there is the possibility that traffic signals could revert to emergency flash mode or change cycles, thus being out of synch because some have date specific chips too numerous to fix before the end of December. However, the Committee concluded that as long as electric power was on, there would likely be no major safety concerns except for those signals where computers control reversible lane control signs.

In an October 22, 1999, report, the Senate Committee concluded there would be "more inconveniences than tragedies" in the United States while expressing concern about safe travel outside of the United States. The report stated that potential delays at US airports should be expected and that public transit systems were considered vulnerable because many did not have an aggressive response plan in place for any problems. Internationally, the report singled out Italy, China and Russia as poorly prepared. Not only was Italy's infrastructure not near compliance levels, but the Committee expressed particular concern given the Vatican's celebration of the 2000th birthday of Christ. Finally, the report said that approximately 50% of the 161 countries it assessed were at a "medium to high risk" for failures in sectors such as transportation, telecommunications and energy.

The best advice is to expect delays and to check ahead. For air travelers, each airline's web site will provide Y2K preparedness information or you can use one of the above government web sites to check on airline and airport preparedness. If you are travelling internationally, the State Department's web site offers comprehensive information for travelers, including other, non-travel related Y2K information and general consular information.